The old-versus-new tax regime debate has produced more confusion than clarity because most explanations start with slab tables instead of starting with a real person's salary and deduction mix. The honest answer is that the winning regime is not the same at ₹8 lakh and ₹20 lakh, and it is not the same for someone renting in Mumbai versus someone who owns a home in a Tier 2 city.
What follows is a bracket-by-bracket comparison using four common salary levels: ₹8 lakh, ₹12 lakh, ₹15 lakh, and ₹20 lakh. For each bracket, I have included a base case with modest deductions and a second case with meaningful HRA, 80C, and NPS contributions. The numbers shift significantly depending on which situation actually describes you.
This is not a theoretical exercise. I have seen people choose the new regime at ₹15 lakh and leave ₹30,000 in savings on the table because they assumed the new regime was always simpler and therefore always better. Simpler is a real advantage, but it is not the same as cheaper.